Perspectives Agricoles is the leading reference magazine for field crops in France. In their latest issue, Raphaël explained the growing threat from Take-all Disease Under the Effect of Climate Change.
Here is the original article: Piétin-échaudage : un risque accru avec le climat | Perspectives Agricoles
Find below the key takeaway the translation.
Key takeaway
🔴 Take-all disease pressure is increasing in France, particularly in the North and East, under the influence of climate change.
📊 A prediction model developed by Certis Belchim and WeatherForce reliably forecasts field damage (70% accuracy) and shows risk will continue to rise.
🌱 Main risk factors: cereal monoculture, early sowing dates, mild autumns/springs, and spring/summer rainfall; conversely, harsh winters limit the disease.
🧪 No resistant cereal varieties exist today; only two seed treatments are available:
Silthiofam 125 g/L (conventional): Latitude XL®
Bacillus amyloliquefaciens subsp. plantarum strain D747 (biocontrol): Toltek®
🚜 Agronomic practices such as crop rotation, delayed sowing, and diversification of species remain essential to reducing disease pressure.
🌾 Yield losses can exceed 50% in severe cases, making anticipation and preventive strategies critical for growers.
A Growing Threat from Take-all Disease Under the Effect of Climate Change
By: Charles BAUDART (Perspectives Agricoles)
September 17, 2025 – Issue No. 537
Take-all disease is expected to spread further under the influence of climate change. A model developed by a team from Certis Belchim and WeatherForce predicts an intensification of damage, particularly in the northeastern quarter of France.
Take-all damage is increasing but remains difficult to assess and monitor, due to the disease’s origin: caused by a soil-borne fungus, the only way to measure its extent is by sampling the roots of cultivated cereals.
A Modeled Risk
A Prediction Tool Based on Trials
A model developed by Certis Belchim, in collaboration with Toulouse-based WeatherForce, now makes it possible to reliably establish the risk of take-all in France and correctly predict observed field damage in 70% of cases. All projections show that with climate change, the frequency of the disease is expected to continue rising.
“Our model is based on more than 1,500 trials conducted mainly in France, the UK, and Germany over the reference period 1980–2010,” explains Raphaël Biezunski, Seed Treatment Development Manager at Certis Belchim. “Several parameters were considered: crop rotation, climate zone, seasonal temperatures and rainfall, soil texture, organic matter content, soil pH, and sowing dates.” The data was subjected to statistical analysis in order to build an algorithm ranking the influence of each factor.
The Main Risk Factors Identified
Crop rotations and previous cereal crops are the main factors influencing take-all. Sowing date also confirms its strong impact, with earlier sowings carrying greater risk. Soil and climate conditions likewise strongly affect take-all development. Several climatic conditions influencing the disease have been identified: notably spring and summer rainfall and mild autumn and spring temperatures, which favor it, versus winter cold spells, which slow the fungus’s development.
Forecasts Based on Four Climate Models
Three Climate Scenarios to 2100
The expected variation in these climatic conditions was then used to build a forecast of risk to 2100 considering three distinct climate scenarios (RCPs) from the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report.
- The first scenario assumes a drastic reduction in emissions, with carbon neutrality achieved after 2050, limiting the rise in average global temperatures below 2°C.
- The second, deemed most likely, assumes greenhouse gas emissions remain near today’s level before declining around 2050, without reaching neutrality by 2100.
- The third scenario assumes high emissions due to increased fossil fuel use.
Projections Integrated into a Risk Model
For each scenario, four climate models were used, in order to establish not only the average evolution of climate but also the uncertainty of predictions. Projections of temperature and precipitation were integrated into the formula developed by Certis Belchim to calculate take-all risk maps at a 25 km² resolution.
All RCP climate scenarios predict a reduction in the frequency and intensity of winter cold spells. “Yet cold usually slows the development of the fungus and thus limits its spread. Milder autumns favor early infections and therefore increased disease pressure,” notes Raphaël Biezunski.
An Often Underestimated Disease
Take-all is caused by the soil fungus Gaeumannomyces graminis tritici. This pathogen survives in the soil and on crop residues, then attacks cereal roots, causing necrosis and severely reducing the plant’s ability to absorb water and nutrients. It is the main root diseases of cereals.
In the UK, the economic losses caused by take-all are estimated at nearly €70 million. No resistant cereal varieties are currently available. Only one conventional fungicide solution exists: Latitude XL® (silthiofam 125 g/L), and one biocontrol solution for low- to medium-risk situations, Toltek® (Bacillus amyloliquefaciens subsp. plantarum strain D747).
An Increasingly Harmful Disease
Overall, the evolution of risk follows the evolution of CO₂ emissions.
- In the first scenario, take-all risk is at its highest in the first 30 years (until 2046), then gradually decreases.
- In the second scenario, risk increases across much of northern France, with a marked expansion eastward; in the Massif Central, historically a low-risk area, pressure also rises.
- Finally, in the third scenario, risk rises continuously as emissions remain high.
Historically, the disease was most impactful in oceanic-climate zones (warm, humid autumns, few harsh winters). “The projections show that take-all should continue spreading, making the disease increasingly problematic in the North and East, regardless of climate scenario,” summarizes Raphaël Biezunski. An increase in the disease’s harmfulness must therefore be anticipated. In extreme cases, yield losses could exceed 50% of potential, highlighting the importance of identifying high-risk situations.
However, in France, two seed-treatment fungicides are approved for take-all: Latitude XL® and Toltek®. In addition, effective agronomic measures exist, starting with crop rotation and delaying sowing dates. Take-all risk is also reduced by diversifying species in crop rotations and decreasing the proportion of cereals in the sequence.